Olives for Hope

If the world is ever going to come to peace,
humanity can no longer be recognized 
on a case by case basis.

Reflections

Gaza - Winners and Losers: A completely non-expert analysis

Posted on November 27, 2012 at 4:15 AM

Don't just cease your fire and return to the old patterns that will create in you the conditions for the next round of violence, pain, and death; begin to cease in your hearts all what prevents you from seeing the human and equal right of the other to live in peace, justice, dignity, respect, and honor. – Sami Awad, Palestinian Non-violence Activist


First I should say I am not a conspiracy buff by nature and, I think, more than direct manipulation of events, savvy politicians take full advantage of situations in which they find themselves. Bibi Netenyahu wants to consolidate and maintain power..so does Hamas…as do Obama in the US and Morsi in Egypt. Their ultimate goals may differ – even significantly – but there can be much synergy in their strategies.


When I talk of winners and losers in the truce agreement, I am not speaking to the details of the agreement, which I have not read. I am speaking to the psychological aspect of the creation of the agreement in of itself. From this point of view it is easiest to say who the biggest losers are; Abbas / Fatah and the US taxpayer – and in the end, because nothing is really solved, the Palestinian and Israeli people. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad there is a ceasefire. I am just very unhappy with how it came to be.


And the rockets? – popular oppinion aside, those had very little to do with what ultimately was accomplished. There may be a relative calm right now, but I would not count on that lasting for long. Palestinians who I know, who have never spoken a violent wish toward Israel, now say things that startle me, even blessing the supplier of the rockets (Iran) which they see as making Israel “give in”. I can say the same for Israeli friends that never spoke of “transfer” before, but now think maybe it is the only way. The rockets are the tinder, and ultimately are the key Netenyahu can use to do as he pleases with Gaza in the next round.


What happened and who ‘won’? Think about it….Netnyahu wants to secure his power and re-election and he wants to further cripple Abbas – done; Morsi wants the US blessing as he consolidates his power in Egypt and he wants to be recognized as the only Arab leader standing with the Palestinians – done; Hamas wants to regain credibility (which had been quickly eroding) before restarting unity talks with Fatah – done.


Israel and Hamas were on the brink of a long-term ceasefire agreement before the assault on Gaza began November 14th. That is when Bibi chooses to assassinate the broker of that agreement Ahmed al-Jabari, starting an eight day assault that left 162 dead (of 130 civilian casualties, more than half are children). I do think Bibi misjudged Hamas ability and was taken by surprise when the rockets began to reach Jerusalem. But rather than making him back down, this only hardened his resolve – there was no way for him to justify ending this campaign at that point.


Then, there was the bus bombing in Tel Aviv. When we heard the news, a colleague said “This shit just got real”. Popular wisdom was that the hopes of a ceasefire were gone and that Israel would mow down Gaza. And why not? Israeli troops were massed around Gaza. Cast Lead was just a rehearsal, Bibi knew with the threat of a return to bus bombings inside Israel, the international community would not get in the way.


However, this was not a suicide attack and there were no deaths. That is not the MO of the extremist factions. Either it was a renegade individual making a point, or…(conspiracy alert) a Mossad operation. With this attack, the sympathies of the international community (I am speaking of the power brokers) was solidified behind Israel, the US Secretary of State shows up, and with Morsi (who previously was saying he is breaking ties with Israel) constructs an agreement with Hamas and Israel. Maybe I am becoming a cynic, but it seems way too convenient and I have to wonder what promises Hilary brought in her suitcase. Whatever they were, be sure the American taxpayer is again footing the bill.


Just Sayin…..

 

Categories: POV